Opinion

There are those who believe every word of the local weatherman's predictions and there are people who view the entire process with skepticism.

Carry my umbrella or leave it home is the main question?

Last weekend the forecast was for a troubled Saturday and Sunday with intermittent rainstorms and/or showers. We canceled all plans and just planned to go to the movies and out to eat.

Who could argue with experts on TV and the radio?

Surprise ! Surprise! Surprise!

Unfortunately, Saturday was gorgeous! The sun shone brightly and I played a set of tennis. Later I swam in the pool with sunshine all around me. The original plans to go to the seashore had been ruined.

On late Sunday afternoon the forecast came true. It certainly rained.

An oracle named Nostradamus lived many centuries ago. His predictions all came true if you stretched your imagination. Twist a word here and bend a sentence there and you have a perfect score.

Other prognosticators in our modern day world are found on Wall Street. "The Stock Market will top 15,000 by New Year's! Maybe, Maybe not! Their predictions cause many investors to gain and many believers to lose. What are they using as facts? They go back hundreds of years and use old facts in new situations. Half of them are Bulls and the other 50 percent are Bears. (Incidental fact: Bulls strike upward with their horns and thus predict the stocks will go higher. Bears strike downward with their massive paws and so foretell a lower market.)

Who to believe? Based on what?

Another venue where we see so-called experts making predictions is in the world of sports. Oddsmakers give dubious statistics and then prophesy a winner. Horseracing is based on theory, data and experience, But there is no valid proof or facts to accompany the prediction and the betting.

The same is true for football, baseball or basketball wagering. Betting on the basis of knowledge gleaned by past-data on horses or athletes is eventually futile.

Seeing into the future is not something any person, any think tank or group of geniuses can do consistently. Even Gypsy fortunetellers have been known to be wrong.

Use that proverbial "Grain of Salt" as a rule.

Doubt and Suspect are two words that should be used when somebody is aggressively predicting the future.


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